The Exponential Rise of Artificial Superintelligence
By Bill Lauritzen
Our world is rich in phenomena that intersect the realms of nature and mathematics, creating fascinating insights into patterns of growth and development. One such remarkable phenomenon is that of exponential growth, which is often hidden within the mundane and everyday, yet yields extraordinary, and sometimes counterintuitive, realities.
This concept of exponential growth is vividly demonstrated by an ancient story from India about a wise man who invented the game of chess. As a reward, the king offered him anything within his power to give. The wise man requested a seemingly modest gift: a single grain of rice for the first square on the chessboard, two for the second, four for the third, with each square receiving double the grains of the previous one. Deceptively simple at first glance, the king did not realize that on the 64th square the number of grains would be 9,223,372,036,854,775,808.
In the realm of nature, we find a similar pattern in the growth of algae in a pond. Picture a pond subject to the whims of an algae that doubles its coverage area each day. The growth at first appears slow, inconsequential even. Yet, by the 30th day, the entire pond is shrouded in a green blanket. How many days did it take for the algae to cover half the pond? Intuition might suggest 15 days, which is half of 30. Yet, the pond would be half-covered on the 29th day! The leap from half to full coverage occurs in just a single day, showing the startling speed of exponential growth.
Viruses, like the flu or COVID-19, can spread exponentially if unchecked, where one person infects two, then four, then eight, and so on. The rapid spread witnessed globally during the COVID-19 pandemic of the early 21st century serves as a reminder of the power and speed of exponential growth. I recall watching helplessly at our nation’s limp response to COVID-19, thinking that an exponentially spreading virus requires an exponentially spreading response.
Now, let’s journey to the fourth, somewhat parallel scenario, involving the development of an artificial, self-improving superintelligence. Picture an entity that doubles its intellectual and computational prowess every year. Given 30 years, it reaches a level of superintelligence, capable of solving every theoretically solvable problem. How long would it take for this artificial superintelligence to acquire the capacity to solve half of all theoretically solvable problems? Like the algae scenario, it achieves this halfway mark at the 29th year, providing a short window before the attainment of its full superintelligence.
Whether it’s a grain of rice on a chessboard, the daily spread of algae, the rampant proliferation of a virus, or the theoretical growth of superintelligence, the principle of exponential growth holds true. It is not simply a doubling in quantity, but the rapidity of change that can occur. By the time an emerging superintelligence is ‘halfway’ to realizing its potential, we might only be left with a short window to react before it achieves full superintelligence.
Although this representation provides a stark perspective, it is an oversimplification. The actual trajectory of artificial intelligence’s growth is unlikely to follow such a perfect exponential curve. But by recognizing and understanding the potential for exponential escalation, we can better anticipate, react, and adapt to these fast-paced changes.
